How Survivorship Bias Skews Success Perception in Creative Businesses

As creative entrepreneurs, it’s easy to look at success stories and feel like they hold the secret to making it in your own business. You see the artists who “made it big” or the design studios that seem to have everything figured out, and it’s tempting to think, “If I just do what they did, I’ll get the same results.” But this thinking, while understandable, often overlooks something critical: survivorship bias.

This is when we focus only on those who’ve succeeded and forget about all the others who tried the same thing but didn’t make it. It can make success seem more straightforward than it really is, leaving you feeling frustrated when your journey doesn’t look the same.

The truth is, your path to success is unique, and while there’s plenty to learn from others, you have to carve your own way based on your strengths, goals, and values. In this article, we explore how survivorship bias affects creative businesses and how you can avoid falling into this mental trap—so you can honor your own journey and build a business that’s true to you.

What Exactly is Survivorship Bias and Where Does It Come From?

Survivorship bias is when we focus only on the people or things that have “survived” or succeeded, while forgetting about those that didn’t. Think of survivorship bias like only seeing the highlight reel of someone’s vacation on Instagram. You see the sunny beaches, delicious meals, and perfect outfits, but you don’t see the missed flights, rainy days, or those awkward travel moments. In business, we often only see the success stories, not the struggles or failures that didn’t make it to the “feed.” We assume that following their exact steps will guarantee our own success—without considering all the people who did the same but didn’t make it.

This idea actually comes from World War II, when engineers were trying to figure out how to reinforce military planes. They studied the damage on the planes that returned from battle, planning to add armor where the bullet holes were. But then a statistician, Abraham Wald, pointed out something critical: they should reinforce the areas that didn’t have bullet holes, because those were likely the areas that, when hit, caused the planes to crash. In other words, the planes that survived didn’t show the full picture of what caused failure.

For creative women running their own businesses, survivorship bias can pop up in all sorts of ways. You might see successful entrepreneurs on social media and think, “If I just follow their path, I’ll get the same results.” But it’s important to remember that not everyone who followed that same path made it, and we often don’t hear those stories. Instead of feeling pressured by other people’s success, focus on creating your own unique journey—one that works for your talents, goals, and values. It’s great to be inspired by others, but remember, your success is about more than following someone else’s blueprint!

Where Survivorship Bias Sneaks In

Survivorship bias pops up in a variety of fields, and while finance is a big one, there are plenty of other areas where it sneaks in. From education to sports, in all these areas, survivorship bias can lead to overly optimistic conclusions and prevent people from considering the broader reality, which includes both successes and failures. Recognizing this bias helps you make more informed, balanced decisions in any field. Let’s take a look at a few areas in which survivorship bias is particularly impactful.

Finance and Investing

In finance, survivorship bias occurs when evaluating mutual fund performance. People might look at the funds that have performed well over the years and assume that investing in them is the key to success. However, they’re only seeing the funds that survived and thrived. Those with poor performance were closed or merged, so they don’t show up in the analysis, giving a false sense of how well funds generally do.

Similarly, when we hear about companies that grew massively (like Amazon or Apple), we tend to focus on them as models of success. But we forget about the many other companies that tried to do the same thing and failed.

Sports

In the sports world, survivorship bias is common when analyzing the careers of successful athletes. We focus on their dedication, hard work, and talent and assume that anyone who trains the same way will succeed. But we don’t see the thousands of athletes who put in the same effort and didn’t make it to the top.

Health and Medicine

In medical research, survivorship bias can appear when looking at treatment outcomes. For example, people might look at patients who survived certain treatments and think those treatments are always effective. But without considering those who didn’t make it or dropped out of the study, we get an incomplete picture of how successful the treatment really is. Because of that, researchers can draw incorrect conclusions about their scientific findings that have enormous consequences.

That’s why researchers eliminate survivorship bias by using methods like randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and intent-to-treat analysis. In RCTs, participants are randomly assigned to treatment or control groups, ensuring a fair comparison. Intent-to-treat analysis includes all participants, even those who drop out or switch treatments, to avoid survivorship bias and provide a fuller picture of the treatment’s real effectiveness.

Education

Another example of survivorship bias can be found in education. In education, we might look at students who succeeded in a particular program or career path and assume the program is highly effective. However, we often ignore those who started on the same path but dropped out or struggled. This bias can distort how effective certain educational methods or programs appear.

Job Market and Career Development

We often hear about individuals who followed a certain career trajectory and became wildly successful, leading us to believe that copying their approach will lead to similar results. However, this ignores the many others who took the same steps but didn’t achieve the same level of success.

Technology and Innovation

When we look at the success stories of tech startups like Facebook or Google, we assume that their methods are the “recipe” for success. But for every Google, there are countless other startups that followed similar strategies and failed. Survivorship bias in tech makes it easy to overlook the failures and focus only on the successes.

Entrepreneurship

Of course, we’re talking about survivorship bias and entrepreneurship! When we see successful entrepreneurs and assume following their path will lead to success, we forget about all the others who followed the same steps but didn’t make it.

Survivorship bias makes us focus on only the winners and their positive outcomes, ignoring the countless businesses that failed along the way. It’s important that we try to prevent survivorship bias when evaluating other entrepreneurs and comparing ourselves to them.

How Survivorship Bias Relates to Creative Businesses

Overemphasis on Success Stories

As creative entrepreneurs, it’s natural to look up to those who’ve “made it”—the artists who became household names or the design studios that seem to have found the secret formula for success. It can feel motivating to follow in their footsteps, believing that if you just work hard and do what they did, you’ll achieve the same results. But this kind of thinking can be misleading. What you don’t see are the hundreds or even thousands of creative businesses that followed a similar path but didn’t succeed. When we only focus on the winners, it creates the illusion that their success is typical, when in reality, they may be outliers.

This can lead to unrealistic expectations. You might start to feel frustrated when your journey doesn’t look like theirs, or when success doesn’t come as quickly or in the same way. It’s important to remember that everyone’s creative business path is unique, and just because it worked for someone else doesn’t mean it’s the only way to get there. Your timeline and methods can (and should) reflect your own goals, strengths, and circumstances.

Risky Decisions Based on Skewed Data

When you only focus on the success stories, it can also skew the decisions you make for your business. For example, you might see successful design studios or artists pouring tons of money into branding and marketing, and think, “That’s what I need to do to make it.” What’s often missing in this narrative is that plenty of businesses spent heavily on these areas and still didn’t succeed. When you only look at those who survived and thrived, you don’t get the full picture of the risks involved.

This can lead you to take on unnecessary risks, like investing in expensive marketing campaigns or hiring a big PR team before your business is ready. These decisions might work for some, but they aren’t one-size-fits-all. You need to carefully consider what’s right for your business, where you are in your journey, and what resources you have available. Just because it worked for someone else doesn’t mean it’s the right move for you.

Underestimating the Role of Failure in Growth

Many of the creative businesses you admire probably didn’t get it right the first time. What’s often overlooked in success stories is the role that failure plays in eventual success. Survivorship bias leads us to ignore the fact that many entrepreneurs experienced numerous setbacks before they “made it.” Those early mistakes, pivots, and challenges were likely critical learning experiences that helped shape their success down the line.

For newer entrepreneurs, this can be discouraging. If things don’t go perfectly the first time, you might think you’re not cut out for it or that you’re on the wrong path. In reality, those missteps are often where the best growth happens. The key is to learn from them, adapt, and keep going. Embrace the idea that failure is part of the process—it doesn’t mean you’re failing; it means you’re growing.

Misguided Imitation of Popular Models

In creative fields, imitation is often tempting. You see an artist’s style blowing up on Instagram or a design studio’s unique branding gaining attention, and it feels like a roadmap to success. However, what works for one business might not work for another, especially if you’re trying to replicate surface-level tactics without understanding the deeper reasons behind their success. What you might miss is the innovation or authenticity that set them apart in the first place.

When you imitate without context, you risk wasting your time, energy, and resources on strategies that aren’t aligned with your own brand, style, or goals. It’s important to be inspired by others, but make sure you’re still charting your own course. Authenticity resonates more than imitation, especially in creative industries, where standing out is key.

Ignoring Structural and Market Differences

Survivorship bias can also cause you to overlook the structural and market conditions that played a role in someone else’s success. Timing, for instance, can be everything—some businesses launch at just the right moment when there’s a high demand for their services or products. Others might have access to resources, connections, or funding that aren’t available to everyone. Ignoring these factors can lead to disappointment if you try to follow a similar path without recognizing the differences in your circumstances.

It’s important to assess the market and conditions you’re working within, and how they differ from those of the businesses you admire. This will help you set more realistic expectations and create strategies that work for your specific situation. Success isn’t just about copying what others did—it’s about finding your own path, tailored to your unique market and resources.

How to Avoid this Mental Trap and Honor Your Own Journey

Below are a few of our top tips for avoiding survivorship bias in your own life. Reset your expectations, understand that everyone’s experience is different, and know that there’s so much about other businesses that you’ll never see. By focusing on your own journey, learning from failure, and making decisions that align with your unique business, you can avoid the mental trap of survivorship bias. This allows you to build a creative business that’s true to your vision, grows at your own pace, and reflects your authentic self.

#1 Celebrate Your Own Journey

It’s easy to get caught up in comparing yourself to others who seem to be succeeding, but it’s essential to focus on your unique path. Success looks different for everyone, and your timeline or process doesn’t have to match someone else’s. Take time to reflect on the progress you’ve made and the lessons you’ve learned along the way, even from setbacks. Your experiences—whether they’re victories or challenges—are valuable stepping stones to your success.

#2 Embrace Learning from Failure

Instead of viewing failure as something to avoid, see it as a vital part of growth. Every misstep teaches you something new and helps you fine-tune your business strategy. Remember that many successful creatives went through numerous failures before finding their path. By acknowledging and learning from your own mistakes, you’re building resilience and gaining insights that can propel you forward.

#3 Focus on What Works for You

Just because a certain strategy worked for another creative doesn’t mean it’s the right approach for your business. Be mindful of your own resources, strengths, and goals. Take inspiration from others, but tailor your actions to fit your business’s unique needs. This way, you can avoid risky decisions based on skewed data or someone else’s success story that might not apply to your situation.

#4 Set Realistic Expectations

It’s important to remind yourself that success doesn’t happen overnight. When you only focus on the “survivors,” it’s easy to overlook the hard work and years of effort that went into their success. Setting realistic expectations for your own growth will help you stay patient and committed. Break your big goals into smaller, achievable steps and celebrate the wins along the way, no matter how small.

#5 Surround Yourself with Honest, Diverse Perspectives

One of the best ways to avoid survivorship bias is to engage with a diverse group of creatives and business owners. Not just the ones who’ve “made it,” but also those who are in the trenches like you. Networking with others who are at different stages of their journeys can give you a more balanced view of what success really looks like—and remind you that everyone’s path has twists and turns. Joining mastermind groups, creative communities, or peer networks can provide valuable support and perspective.

#6 Be Intentional About Innovation

Instead of copying the success formulas of others, challenge yourself to innovate and bring your own creative spin to your work. Authenticity resonates more with clients and customers, and setting yourself apart is key in the creative industry. Take time to experiment, explore new ideas, and trust your instincts—this is often where breakthroughs happen.

Final Thoughts on Avoiding Survivorship Bias as Your Business Grows

As you move forward in your creative business, remember that success isn’t a one-size-fits-all situation. Survivorship bias can make it seem like there’s a specific formula to follow, but your path is uniquely yours. Celebrate the progress you’ve made, embrace the lessons that come from setbacks, and tailor your strategies to what works best for your business.

Take inspiration from others, but always stay true to your vision and goals. Keep your expectations realistic, surround yourself with diverse perspectives, and don’t be afraid to innovate along the way. Trust that your authenticity and resilience will lead you where you need to go—and enjoy the ride!